Detallada evaluación de la realidad social y política chilena a dos meses de las elecciones presidenciales de ese país. A los éxitos obtenidos por el Gobierno en el proceso de vacunación masiva, uno de los mejor refrendados de toda América Latina, se une un elemento de desaprobación casi general a la gestión del presidente Sebastián Piñera, que es, en gran medida, consecuencia de la explosión social ocurrida en Chile a finales del 2019 y que parece tener aún plena vigencia.
El 11 de marzo del 2020 la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) declaró el brote de covid-19 como pandemia. La situación sanitaria sorprendió a Chile justo cuando los actores sociales, políticos y económicos no terminaban de entender las causas y dimensionar las consecuencias del estallido social de octubre del 2019. Si bien Chile fue el primer país de América del Sur en comenzar a vacunar contra la covid-19, este logro ha estado empañado por las críticas acerca de la insuficiencia de la ayuda económica del Gobierno para sostener a las familias durante los periodos de confinamiento, la poca capacidad de escuchar a todos los actores de la sociedad, insistiendo una y otra vez en las mismas propuestas, mostrando cuán cautivo se encuentra de su marco ideológico, y dejando en evidencia el insuficiente conocimiento del Gobierno de las enormes desigualdades y brechas existentes en el país desde antes de la pandemia. En paralelo, la dinámica política instalaba a nivel institucional a los sectores que empujan para dejar atrás el modelo de desarrollo que se ha aplicado en las últimas tres décadas.
La vacunación: el único logro
No hay duda de que Chile lleva la delantera en el proceso de vacunación en la región. Quizás este sea el único logro que, con posterioridad, le sea reconocido a la administración del presidente Sebastián Piñera en su lucha contra la pandemia de la covid-19. Chile fue el primer país de América del Sur en comenzar a vacunar: inició a fines de diciembre del 2020 la vacunación del personal médico de primera línea.
Tempranamente, en mayo del 2020, Chile inició negociaciones para tener precontratos suscritos con varios laboratorios y asegurar las vacunas. De este modo pudo iniciar el proceso el 3 de febrero del 2021, y apenas tres semanas después al menos el 16% de la población ya tenía una dosis, lo que le valió el reconocimiento internacional. La sólida red de atención primaria, así como la experiencia en campañas de vacunación, facilitaron la logística para avanzar eficientemente con el plan de vacunación.
El Gobierno se impuso la meta de tener al 80% de la población vacunada para mediados del 2021 y, efectivamente, dicha meta se ha cumplido. En esta área el Gobierno demostró capacidad de anticipación, planificación, destreza negociadora, y el país exhibió su capacidad logística para transportar las vacunas desde el exterior, distribuir al interior y vacunar en todo Chile usando para ello la red estatal de salud. Elaboró y organizó el plan de vacunación ordenadamente, primero el personal de salud y de primera línea, para luego ir iniciando por los adultos mayores y bajando por tramos de edad. Según cifras del Ministerio de Salud, al 26 de julio del 2021, un 78.98% de la población ya había completado su esquema de vacunación. Si se consideran las personas que tienen una primera dosis o dosis única, esta cifra alcanza al 86.26% de la población susceptible, dado que el 22 de junio del 2021 se inició́ la vacunación de las y los menores de entre 12 y 17 años.
El logro de Chile se hace muy evidente cuando se compara con la realidad del resto del mundo. Según información de Our World in Data, al 4 de julio solo el 13.6% de la población de América Latina y el Caribe había completado su esquema de vacunación, comparado con el 46.3% en los Estados Unidos y Canadá, y el 34.9% en los países de la Unión Europea. Una información más reciente de la misma fuente indica que Chile tiene al 63.13% de su población total con el esquema de vacunación completo, lo que lo deja en segundo lugar del ranking de vacunación de los países de los 36 países que integran la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE).
Como resultado de este exitoso proceso, según informe del 26 de julio del 2021, el ministro de Salud informó que la tasa de positividad llegó a un 2.06%, la cifra más baja desde noviembre del 2020. En virtud de estas alentadoras cifras, el Gobierno comienza a relajar las medidas restrictivas con un plan denominado Paso a Paso, que entró en vigor el 15 de julio, otorgando mayores libertades de movilidad a las personas con esquema de vacunación completo. Incluso el Gobierno decidió abrir, a partir del 26 de julio pasado, las fronteras para los chilenos y extranjeros residentes con el esquema de vacunación completo. Aunque estas medidas han sido bien recibidas por la población en general, no han estado libres de críticas de quienes consideran que no se debe buscar solo la «inmunidad de rebaño» mediante la vacunación masiva, sino que se debe aspirar a una estrategia de covid cero, tal como lo propuso el Colegio Médico en junio.
Todos estos avances, como ha sido característico de esta pandemia, penden de un hilo. La incertidumbre acerca de si la llegada de la variante delta generará una nueva ola de contagios, hará necesaria la aplicación de una tercera dosis de la vacuna, está presente en la mente de todos los actores involucrados. Según el informe epidemiológico del 25 de junio, el primer caso de infección por variante delta diagnosticado en Chile fue detectado por búsqueda activa en un viajero procedente de Estados Unidos y fue confirmado por el Instituto de Salud Pública de Chile el 24 de junio del 2021. Posteriormente, se informó́ que entre el 30 de junio y el 3 de julio ya había otros 10 casos.
Un complejo y titubeante comienzo
La pandemia sorprendió a Chile en periodo de vacaciones estivales y cuando los actores sociales, políticos y económicos trataban todavía de entender las causas y dimensionar las consecuencias que el estallido social de octubre del 2019 traería sobre el país.
Un acuerdo político en el momento más álgido de la crisis, noviembre del 2019, había trazado una salida institucional que proponía un plebiscito para abril del 2020 en el que se propondría aprobar o rechazar la idea de dotar a Chile de una nueva Constitución y, en caso de aprobarse dicha idea, si debía ser redactada por una Convención mixta constitucional (integrada a partes iguales por miembros elegidos popularmente y por parlamentarios en ejercicio), o por una Convención Constitucional (integrada exclusivamente por miembros elegidos).
A mediados de marzo de dicho año y ante la grave situación sanitaria causada por la pandemia, legisladores y líderes de partidos políticos acordaron postergar el plebiscito por una nueva Constitución, originalmente fijado para el 26 de abril del 2020, al 25 de octubre del 2020. Finalmente, se aprobó por amplia mayoría, cercana al 80%, modificar la Constitución y que esta fuera redactada por una Convención Constitucional, que tras elegir sus 155 integrantes en unas elecciones generales inició sus tareas el pasado 1 de julio.
Por otro lado, cargaba el Gobierno la pesada impronta de ser el primero, desde la recuperación de la democracia, que recibía una misión de la Oficina de la Alta Comisionada para los Derechos Humanos para evaluar la situación de los derechos humanos en el país. El informe, hecho público en diciembre del 2019, señalaba textualmente: «Hay razones fundadas para sostener que, a partir del 18 de octubre, se han producido un elevado número de violaciones graves a los derechos humanos», y proponía un conjunto de 21 recomendaciones concretas al Estado chileno.
Bajo este cuadro de complejidad política, el 3 de marzo del 2020 se da a conocer el primer caso de contagio por covid-19 en Chile. El 15 de marzo, el Gobierno decidió suspender las clases, cerrar las fronteras y tres días más tarde decretar estado de catástrofe por 90 días, estado de excepción constitucional que todavía se encuentra vigente en el país. A los pocos días, el 22 de marzo, comenzó a regir en todo el territorio nacional el toque de queda con la prohibición de cualquier ciudadano de circular entre las 22:00 y las 5:00 horas. El 25 de marzo del 2020, se decretó́ la primera cuarentena para siete comunas de Santiago, y el 13 de mayo, con 2,660 casos nuevos de covid-19 y un total de 346 fallecidos, cuarentena total para todo el Gran Santiago, con el 90% de la población de la Región Metropolitana en confinamiento obligatorio.
Tras los primeros dos meses, las dudas y críticas a la gestión de la pandemia fueron en aumento, tanto así que el 18 de mayo, en cadena nacional, el presidente debió retractarse de sus primeras declaraciones en las que había afirmado con cierto optimismo «que el Gobierno barajaba varios escenarios» y que era un tema para el que «nos venimos preparando desde enero» y reconoció que Chile no estaba preparado para la pandemia, como tampoco lo estaba el resto de los países del mundo.
Los aspectos más débiles de la gestión de la autoridad sanitaria estuvieron siempre marcados por la efectividad, alcance y oportunidad de las medidas de confinamiento, la capacidad de trazar las cadenas de contagios, el delicado tema de la contabilidad de los contagios y de los decesos, además, por supuesto, de la oportunidad e insuficiencia de la ayuda prestada por el Gobierno para sostener a las familias durante su confinamiento, y los gastos y gestiones para disponer de suficientes ventiladores y camas críticas. Otro flanco importante fue la incapacidad de escuchar a los actores relevantes: gremios médicos, sociedades científicas, personal sanitario, alcaldes y autoridades locales.
Ante algunas vacilaciones iniciales, los alcaldes actuaron rápido y se situaron en la primera línea de contención, lo que en más de alguna ocasión causó discrepancias entre alcaldes y Gobierno en temas como las cuarentenas dinámicas, la falta de información para hacer seguimiento de los casos covid-19, la insistencia en abrir los colegios y escuelas, la ausencia de ayuda social oportuna y efectiva que posibilitara cumplir el confinamiento en las comunas más vulnerables. Varios alcaldes acusaron al Gobierno de no conocer la realidad en la que viven millones de chilenos y de poner la economía sobre la salud en las medidas de manejo de la pandemia. Decidoras fueron las declaraciones del exministro de salud, Jaime Mañalich, cuando en mayo del 2020 admitió que desconocía el nivel de pobreza y hacinamiento que existía en algunos sectores de Santiago, lo que explicaba que, pese a las cuarentenas, los contagios continuaban en aumento. En esa línea, en mayo del 2021, la Asociación de Municipios Rurales de Chile, la Asociación Chilena de Municipalidades, la Asociación de Municipalidades de Chile y las Asociaciones de Municipalidades Regionales suscribieron una declaración en la que las alcaldesas y los alcaldes exigieron que quienes lideran las políticas públicas se «conecten» con la realidad ciudadana, y llamaron a poner el foco en las personas y a entender que los municipios son hoy la puerta de entrada de respuesta a los vecinos ante situaciones de conmoción nacional, como la pandemia.
Otros desencuentros importantes se presentaron con el Colegio Médico, gremio que ha puesto en duda si las medidas adoptadas por el Gobierno son las más adecuadas en términos sanitarios. Si bien en marzo del 2020 se celebraba la instalación de la Mesa Social Covid-19 como una instancia de coordinación, de diálogo y colaboración para enfrentar la pandemia, en mayo del 2021 el Colegio Médico decidió retirarse de dicha mesa señalando que «decisiones imprudentes, tomadas en espacios sin actas, ni expertos, han devenido en un nuevo descontrol de la transmisión viral, impactando en vidas y secuelas de miles de personas». En particular, las recomendaciones hechas por el Colegio Médico, más de 100 minutas desde marzo del 2020, no fueron o no han sido tomadas en cuenta, por ejemplo, en los casos del plan Paso a Paso, el permiso de vacaciones o el pase de movilidad para los que ya completaron su vacunación. Estas decisiones se han tomado en el marco de una «Mesa Covid», cuya composición y argumentos para la toma de estas son desconocidos y de los cuales ni siquiera existe registro.
La insuficiente y tardía ayuda económica
Antes de la crisis, la región estaba prácticamente estancada. El crecimiento promedio fue de solo un 0.3% y el crecimiento por habitante fue negativo en el periodo 2014-2019. Este sexenio fue uno de los de menor crecimiento desde que hay registro, solo comparable con los que incluyen a la Primera Guerra Mundial o la Gran Depresión. La CEPAL (2021) prevé un crecimiento económico del 5.2% para la región en el 2021 y del 2.9%, en promedio, para el 2022. Para Chile, las proyecciones señalan una tasa de crecimiento del PIB del 8.0% para el 2021 y del 3.2% para el 2022.
El número de personas en situación de pobreza extrema alcanzaría los 78 millones (8 millones más que en el 2019) y el número de personas en situación de pobreza llegaría a 209 millones (22 millones más que el año anterior) en América Latina y el Caribe. En este contexto, habría aumentado la desigualdad en la distribución del ingreso, con un incremento del 2.9% en el índice de Gini. La CEPAL (2021) ha destacado el esfuerzo que realizaron durante el 2020 los países de América Latina y el Caribe adoptando medidas de protección social no contributiva, destinadas a mantener el consumo y garantizar condiciones de vida básicas, entre las que se incluyen las transferencias monetarias y en especie. Dichas transferencias de emergencia llegaron a 326 millones de personas, el 49.4% de la población de la región y fueron equivalentes al 1.25% del PIB de la región en el 2019. Sin duda, estas medidas permitieron contener parcialmente el aumento de la pobreza y la pobreza extrema en el 2020.
En Chile, según la Encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica Nacional (CASEN 2020), presentada el 5 de julio del 2021, la pobreza tuvo un aumento estadísticamente significativo en el 2020, rompiendo su tendencia a la baja desde el 2003. Unos 2.1 millones de personas se encuentran en situación de pobreza, con una tasa de pobreza total de un 10.8% (un 4.26% de pobreza extrema y un 6.56% de pobreza). Los indicadores de desigualdad también aumentaron en forma alarmante (Ministerio de Desarrollo Social y Familia, 2021).
En mayo del 2020, el presidente Piñera anunció una serie de medidas económicas para ayudar a la población afectada por la cuarentena. Entre estos anuncios estaban: dos planes económicos y sociales por más de US$17,000 millones; la Ley de Protección del Trabajo con cargo a los seguros de cesantía de los trabajadores; el Bono Covid-19 para 2.7 millones de personas vulnerables, y el ingreso familiar de emergencia (IFE) por tres meses, destinado a 4.9 millones de personas, entre otras medidas.
En enero del 2021, se modificó́ el ingreso familiar de emergencia para entregar aportes a las familias en situación de pobreza y vulnerabilidad residentes en comunas en cuarentena total o parcial (2.5 millones de hogares). En abril, se amplió́ la cobertura del IFE sin requisitos sobre la situación sanitaria de la comuna de residencia a las familias del 80% más vulnerable, según el Registro Social de Hogares, alcanzando a 4.7 millones de hogares. Pero también hubo «autoayudas», de las que la población mayoritaria echó mano ante la enorme necesidad que la caída del empleo y de la actividad económica causaba. El Congreso Nacional, no sin antes tener una álgida disputa con el Ejecutivo, aprobó por ley tres retiros equivalentes cada uno a un 10% de los fondos de capitalización individual de las administradoras de fondos de pensiones, con los que se financiarían las futuras pensiones. Con el primer y segundo retiro, 3.2 millones de personas quedaron sin fondos en sus cuentas individuales. En el tercer retiro, del total de 6.1 millones de personas que lo solicitaron, 950,208 lo hicieron por el 100% de sus ahorros en cuentas individuales. Mientras la Cámara de Diputados ya ha confirmado que el 11 de agosto se iniciará oficialmente la tramitación del cuarto retiro del 10% de los fondos de las AFP, el Gobierno evalúa la extensión del IFE hasta diciembre en lugar de hasta septiembre, como había planificado inicialmente. La discusión se lleva a cabo mientras en el informe de julio de la Superintendencia de Pensiones los fondos de pensiones más conservadores, el fondo D y E, anotaron caídas de 5.85% y 9.85%, respectivamente, en los últimos 12 meses.
Durante su cuenta pública del 1 de junio del 2021, el presidente reconoció la pérdida de 1.8 millones de puestos de trabajo y señaló que desde el inicio de la pandemia se habían hecho esfuerzos para ampliar la Red de Protección Social a través de medidas basadas en cuatro pilares: i) la entrega de bonos y alimentos, como el ingreso familiar de emergencia, el bono para la clase media y el Programa de Canastas de Alimentos para Chile; ii) la incorporación de seguros sociales, como la Ley de Protección al Empleo, el fortalecimiento del subsidio de cesantía, los subsidios al empleo y la continuidad garantizada de los servicios de utilidad pública; iii) créditos solidarios, como los créditos Fogape y los préstamos solidarios para la clase media; y iv) los beneficios tributarios, como las postergaciones de pago de contribuciones y patentes, y la devolución anticipada a las personas de sus créditos tributarios.
De acuerdo con la información de la Dirección de Presupuesto (2021), el conjunto de medidas transitorias asociadas al reforzamiento y ampliación de la Red de Protección Social, que implican gasto fiscal, para hacer frente a la crisis de la covid-19 totalizó US$6.391 millones en el 2020 (2.5% del PIB), mientras que, ante la extensión de la crisis, estas alcanzarán, hasta septiembre del 2021, US$23,057 millones en el 2021 (7.0% del PIB), sumando un esfuerzo fiscal del 9.5% del PIB desde el inicio de la pandemia.
Las consecuencias políticas
No obstante, el indiscutible éxito del plan de vacunación y los esfuerzos realizados por el Ejecutivo, la ciudadanía se ha formado la convicción de que el Gobierno ha llegado tarde y de forma insuficiente con el apoyo económico, de que pudo haber hecho mucho más, de mejor manera y con mayor sentido de oportunidad, y que ha insistido una y otra vez en las mismas propuestas, mostrando cuán cautivo se encuentra de su marco ideológico. Se percibe un Gobierno ciego a la realidad, sordo a las demandas y empecinado en que solo sus ideas son las técnicamente adecuadas para enfrentar esta crisis.
La mala evaluación no solo se ha reflejado en las encuestas: en abril del 2019, a un mes de iniciada la pandemia en Chile, la encuesta CADEM señalaba una aprobación del 36% para el Gobierno de Piñera y un 50% de desaprobación; en abril del 2021, solo el 20% aprobaba la gestión del presidente, mientras que el 76% la desaprobaba. También hay que destacar el bajísimo respaldo electoral que la coalición de gobierno ha recibido en las distintas elecciones que se han desarrollado este año. Para la próxima elección presidencial, fijada para noviembre de este año, el candidato del Gobierno ni siquiera lograría pasar a la segunda vuelta electoral.
A estas alturas no hay duda de que el estallido social y sus consecuencias, y la gestión de la pandemia, han colocado a esta segunda administración del presidente Piñera como la peor desde el retorno a la democracia en 1990. A pesar de los intentos del presidente por tratar de dejar un «legado», no parece posible contrarrestar la dolorosa cifra de fallecidos por la pandemia: 35,000 muertes reportaron el Ministerio de Salud (solo confirmados) y, según datos del Departamento de Estadísticas e Información de Salud (DEIS), al 26 de julio los fallecidos ascienden a 45,000 si se incluyen confirmados y sospechosos.
Para hacer frente a la reconstrucción poscovid-19 se necesitarán pactos políticos y sociales que se construyan con la participación de una amplia variedad de actores, que permitan universalizar la protección social y la salud y, sobre todo, que reorienten el desarrollo sobre la base de la igualdad sentando las bases para construir un Estado de bienestar que, entre otros objetivos, asegure el acceso universal a la salud, una fiscalidad redistributiva, un incremento de la productividad, una mejor prestación de bienes y servicios públicos, un manejo sostenible de los recursos naturales, y un aumento y una diversificación de la inversión pública y privada.
La recuperación exige una acción pública rápida y eficiente en que se atiendan las diversas realidades nacionales. Para ello, resulta fundamental que la autoridad sea capaz de escuchar a los ciudadanos, de modificar la trayectoria si se diera el caso, y de abrir espacios que supongan un mejor uso de las tecnologías digitales para facilitar la participación de la sociedad civil. Dicha participación debe traducirse en la estructuración de acciones coordinadas en el ámbito local, nacional y regional que sean precisas en cuanto a los tiempos y oportunas respecto a la toma de decisiones.
Resulta crucial transparentar la información crítica que respalda las decisiones adoptadas por la autoridad, y que dicha información esté basada en datos científicos y se encuentre disponible en formatos y lenguajes que todas las personas puedan comprender con facilidad. Los líderes políticos debieran hacer suya la aspiración de no dejar a nadie atrás y, sobre todo, el objetivo de igualdad contenido en la Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible, aprobada en el 2015 en el seno de las Naciones Unidas. Los 17 Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) de la Agenda 2030 siguen más vigentes que nunca cuando se trata de avanzar hacia un nuevo modelo de desarrollo capaz de eliminar la pobreza extrema, cerrar las brechas de ingreso, riqueza y acceso, crear empleo de calidad, garantizar una vida sana, promover el bienestar de todos a todas las edades y enfrentar la crisis ambiental.
Quizás la particularidad de Chile sea el momento en que la pandemia apareció, justo en el camino de una salida institucional a la mayor crisis política posdictadura, al descontento social expresado con rabia en las calles en octubre del 2019. La pandemia transparentó las carencias y las profundas desigualdades. Se abre, por tanto, la oportunidad de que quienes redactan la nueva Constitución sepan comprender y recoger las inequidades y vulnerabilidades que han salido a la luz producto de la pandemia e incorporar en el nuevo texto las aspiraciones de contar con un Estado de bienestar que proteja a los chilenos en términos de salud, educación, protección social, empleo, igualdad de género. El desafío de la reconstrucción será tremendo. El próximo Gobierno que se elegirá en noviembre tendrá esta pesada carga como prioridad, además de acompañar el proceso de la elaboración de una nueva Constitución y adaptarse a la nueva institucionalidad que surja de este proceso en la mitad de su propio mandato.
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