Hoy en día es frecuente ver en los medios de prensa reportajes sobre los problemas relacionados con la producción y el consumo de gas natural y petróleo. Más allá del mero reportaje de sucesos, algunos artículos que pretenden ser más de fondo suelen prestar atención a la conexión con asuntos de índole política o económica. En las notas especializadas de prensa que circulan en la actualidad, es común ver comentarios respecto de la abundancia del suministro de los últimos meses, a los cuales se suman expresiones de satisfacción en cuanto al bajo precio actual (junio de 2015). Es conveniente colocar esa imagen de «tranquilidad» dentro del contexto al que pertenece. La «abundancia» de la que se habla se debe principalmente a que los consumidores importantes –en particular China– han entrado en la parte desfavorable de un ciclo económico. La menor demanda de energía deja un excedente de la producción (que hasta hace un año era apenas adecuada).
En el caso del petróleo, por ejemplo, hasta hace poco la destrucción de la demanda solía venir acompañada por medidas de compensación –disminución de la producción– tomadas por los grandes productores, en particular por Arabia Saudita. En esta ocasión, el reino saudí se ha negado a disminuir su producción, por lo cual el precio reaccionó a la baja en aproximadamente un 50%, un proceso acelerado que tuvo lugar entre agosto de 2014 y marzo de 2015. En la actualidad, el precio del barril vendido en el mercado internacional (petróleo Brent) oscila en torno a los 55 dólares estadounidenses. A pesar de las notas de prensa eufóricas, dado el considerable excedente de la producción sobre la demanda, ese precio es inesperadamente alto, y todavía tiene el poder de desbordar los presupuestos de muchas naciones vulnerables. La historia reciente de períodos similares –concretamente, el período de los años noventa– indica que la disparidad actual entre oferta y demanda debería conducir a un precio no más alto que la mitad del presente. ¿Por qué no ha descendido hasta esos niveles?
La explotación del petróleo es una actividad que empezó hace algo más de 150 años. Aunque en sus inicios fue tímida, debido a que la demanda provenía de nichos muy pequeños, durante el primer tercio del siglo pasado se multiplicó rápidamente, y al mismo ritmo creció la actividad de exploración en busca de nuevos yacimientos. Como pasa en toda actividad de explotación dentro de un ámbito finito (el planeta), el proceso de exploración fue encontrando primero aquellos yacimientos que eran fáciles de localizar, de gran tamaño y de bajo costo marginal de explotación. En un período tan largo, se ha hecho cada vez más difícil y costoso encontrar nuevos yacimientos siguiendo el patrón tradicional de búsqueda. También, a medida que los campos que se desarrollan van presentando más retos técnicos, el costo marginal de extracción se ha ido incrementando. En algunos estudios hechos por consultores privados de la industria, desde el año 2000 el costo de producir un barril se ha incrementado a razón del 11% anual. En resumen, la industria está empezando a sentir los efectos de la ley de retornos decrecientes. Esta tendencia crea poderosos incentivos para explotar hidrocarburos, en particular petróleo, por medio de nuevas técnicas y asumiendo retos mayores.
Dos fuentes muy distintas
En la actualidad, el petróleo crudo que se consume en todo el mundo procede de dos tipos de fuente de carácter muy disímil. Por una parte, se encuentran los productores del crudo «convencional», un 80% del cual proviene de los miembros de la opep y de Rusia. Este petróleo sale de yacimientos que en su mayoría fueron descubiertos durante los años cincuenta y sesenta del siglo pasado. En el caso del crudo convencional, esas fechas de referencia son importantes, puesto que la vida productiva de los campos petrolíferos convencionales ya desarrollados se mide en décadas. Los pozos individuales de esos campos siguen una curva de producción que tiene la forma aproximada de una campana o una meseta: inicialmente la producción de barriles diarios aumenta durante algunos años, luego alcanza un período estable (conocido como un plateau), para luego iniciar un largo descenso hasta que el pozo se abandona casi siempre por razones económicas.
Este mismo proceso se puede apreciar en los campos de producción. Aunque el procedimiento puede llevar dos o tres décadas, llega un día en el cual el campo ya no contribuye significativamente ni al suministro mundial ni a las metas económicas de la compañía productora. En la actualidad, el conjunto de campos convencionales ya establecidos presenta una tasa de declinación de alrededor del 4.6% anual. Las compañías productoras continúan buscando nuevos yacimientos, pero la tasa de descubrimientos ya no es la de hace cuatro décadas. El resultado neto de esta carrera entre exploración y explotación es que la producción mundial de crudo convencional ha permanecido en plateau, ligeramente inclinada hacia la baja, desde el año 2005 hasta el presente.
La segunda fuente es la producción de crudos no convencionales. En esta categoría se encuentran las arenas bituminosas de Canadá, los yacimientos submarinos profundos y los yacimientos denominados de esquistos. Estos tres son los componentes que han contribuido a un aumento neto de la producción mundial, aproximadamente desde el año 2004. Aquí es necesario señalar la diferencia –no muy nítida– entre crudos convencionales y no convencionales. Los crudos no convencionales se denominan así, primero, debido a la necesidad de desarrollar técnicas novedosas para la extracción, las cuales son necesarias dado el mayor grado de dificultad geológica. Esa diferencia casi siempre lleva a un mayor costo tanto para ubicar los yacimientos mediante perforación como en el costo marginal por barril extraído. Para apreciar las diferencias, las comparaciones son útiles. Para la extracción de crudos convencionales, el costo marginal de extracción varía según la ubicación geográfica y la dificultad geológica del yacimiento, hasta llegar a alrededor de unos 35 dólares por barril. El intervalo de variación es amplio; por ejemplo, en algunos pozos saudíes, el costo de extracción por barril puede llegar a ser de tan solo 6 dólares, aunque el promedio saudí está más bien cerca de los 25 dólares por barril. En su período pico, algunos pozos individuales pueden alcanzar una tasa de producción de algunos miles de barriles por día.
A diferencia de los convencionales, el costo marginal por barril de los no convencionales ya mencionados puede variar desde alrededor de 35 dólares (en el caso de algunos de los de plataformas submarinas) hasta más de 90 (en el caso de las arenas bituminosas). Estas últimas requieren procedimientos que, en realidad, son una operación muy compleja de minería, y su contribución a la producción mundial actual es de cerca de un 2%. La mayor operación de extracción de yacimientos submarinos ha tenido lugar en el Mar del Norte y fue llevada a cabo de manera conjunta por Noruega y el Reino Unido. Esos campos alcanzaron su pico de producción en el año 2000, y en la actualidad contribuyen con cerca del 4% de la producción mundial de crudo. También se encuentran los campos de explotación submarina del golfo de México, que en la actualidad mantienen una producción estable que contribuye con otro 2% a la producción mundial. Por último, están los yacimientos de esquistos.
Prácticamente toda la extracción de hidrocarburos se da desde formaciones geológicas compuestas de roca porosa. En el pasado, cuando la extracción de petróleo era un trabajo más simple, con frecuencia en la etapa inicial de la vida de un campo había presión subterránea suficiente como para que, una vez abierto el pozo, el petróleo fluyera con poca ayuda adicional. En esas formaciones convencionales, las rocas saturadas con el hidrocarburo son de alta permeabilidad, es decir, su estructura interna contiene poros relativamente grandes, y las capas impregnadas del hidrocarburo podían alcanzar un grosor de hasta unos cientos de metros. En la actualidad, la gran mayoría de los campos de petróleo con características tan nobles ya han sido descubiertos y en muchos casos llevan décadas de explotación continua. Por otro lado, existen formaciones compuestas por material sólido con un grado de permeabilidad mucho menor que las convencionales; los poros que contienen el hidrocarburo son de dimensiones muy reducidas y se encuentran aislados entre sí en mayor grado que en el caso de las formaciones convencionales.
En la actualidad, las formaciones de este tipo que resultan de interés comercial son las de esquistos. Las formaciones geológicas de esquistos consisten en capas delgadas y compactas de material con características similares a las del barro. Esas capas son muy frágiles y cuando resulta ser el caso concentran hidrocarburos, ya sea gas natural o petróleo, que pueden alcanzar un cierto valor comercial cuando los precios son lo suficientemente elevados.1 En cuanto a las formaciones que contienen gas, pueden alcanzar extensiones territoriales considerables y contener enormes cantidades del hidrocarburo. Un ejemplo digno de mención es la formación Marcellus, la cual se extiende a lo largo de varios estados del noreste de los Estados Unidos. En el caso del petróleo, las mayores formaciones conocidas en proceso de explotación se encuentran también en los Estados Unidos, y son la formación Bakken, que cubre el subsuelo de parte de los estados de Dakota del Norte y Montana y se extiende hasta el otro lado de la frontera con Canadá, en la provincia de Saskatchewan. La otra bajo explotación extensa es la Eagle Ford, en el este del estado de Texas, que llega en parte hasta México.
Fracturación hidráulica: entender lo básico
El grado de esfuerzo y complejidad para la extracción del hidrocarburo de esquisto puede ser muy variable. Esa variedad comprende desde unas pocas formaciones que contienen «puntos dulces»2 hasta extensiones muy grandes de territorio que contienen formaciones dificultosas o imposibles de explotar dentro de los escenarios de precio previsibles. Aquellas que presentan posibilidades de explotación económica son de interés para la aplicación de la técnica de fracturación hidráulica.
La fracturación hidráulica, popularmente conocida como fracking, es un procedimiento de extracción de hidrocarburos de formaciones geológicas que presentan permeabilidad muy baja, pero que contienen cantidades considerables de gas o de petróleo atrapadas en sus poros. Lo fundamental de la técnica consiste en la inyección de fluidos en perforaciones hechas en el estrato rocoso, para que la alta presión lo fracture de manera múltiple y de esta manera liberar el hidrocarburo atrapado dentro de un cierto volumen en torno a la tubería. Aunque la composición de los fluidos utilizados puede variar con cada compañía, según secreto comercial, alrededor del 99% del mismo suele ser agua, y el resto consiste principalmente en compuestos químicos que disminuyen la fricción de circulación y de ácidos que ayudan a destapar los huecos hechos a la tubería. Uno de los motivos de fallas de los pozos es la tendencia de las fracturas a cerrarse de manera prematura. Para controlar ese problema, aparte de los ácidos, el fluido inyectado contiene una arena especial u otro tipo de material pulverizado,3 con el propósito de mantener abiertas las fracturas hasta el agotamiento del hidrocarburo económicamente extraíble. Esa arena permanece una vez que se succionan los fluidos de fracturación para permitir la circulación del hidrocarburo.
Las primeras demostraciones del potencial comercial de la tecnología de fracturación hidráulica se realizaron en pozos experimentales preparados por la Halliburton Oil Well Cementing Company en marzo de 1949; trabajo hecho bajo la protección de patentes a favor de Stanolind Oil and Gas (luego conocida como Pan American Oil Company), quienes extendieron una licencia de uso exclusivo a Halliburton. A partir de 1953, la licencia se expidió a toda compañía con las capacidades técnicas necesarias. Durante las cuatro décadas siguientes a la demostración inicial hecha por Halliburton, la técnica fue utilizada en cerca de un millón de pozos en los Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, hasta los años noventa la fracturación hidráulica se utilizaba principalmente con el propósito de restaurar parcialmente el volumen de producción de pozos de crudos convencionales que estaban en la etapa de declive natural de la producción y podían ser «reactivados» usando esta técnica.4
Hasta el principio de los años ochenta, los trabajos de fracturación hidráulica en formaciones de muy baja permeabilidad 5 eran escasos. En su gran mayoría, producían cantidades no muy significativas de hidrocarburos; debido a la estructura tan compacta de la roca, no era posible llegar a la mayor parte del que se sabía que existía en el campo. Esa situación cambió durante los años ochenta gracias a los trabajos de desarrollo comercial realizados por Mitchell Energy & Development Corp, que desarrolló equipo y técnicas para adaptar la fracturación hidráulica a los yacimientos en formaciones de esquistos. Durante ese primer período experimental, las perforaciones eran en su mayoría verticales. Una vez instalada la tubería, se perforan huecos en sitios escogidos de la misma. Esos huecos se abren empleando unos vehículos explosivos especiales, y por allí se inyectan los fluidos que penetran por fracturas naturales, ya presentes en el esquisto, y las ensanchan considerablemente. Por esas fracturas amplificadas escapa el hidrocarburo atrapado en la roca circundante.
Sin embargo, la dirección vertical de la perforación del pozo es ineficiente. Las formaciones para las cuales la tecnología de fracturación fue inventada son estratificadas; es decir, su estructura interna viene en capas delgadas horizontales de material, las cuales se encuentran superpuestas y muy comprimidas. La extracción eficiente desde esa geometría requería de innovaciones incrementales. A principios de los años noventa, la Mitchell Energy hizo mejoras importantes a la técnica ya existente de perforación horizontal. Primero, la perforación penetra verticalmente hasta el nivel de profundidad que se considera óptimo, de dos a tres kilómetros. Luego la tubería gira más o menos en ángulo recto, y así continúa su recorrido de manera paralela a los estratos. Los tubos horizontales tienen un área de exposición a la roca que es decenas de veces mayor que la de los tubos verticales. Como consecuencia de este nuevo arreglo, la cantidad de hidrocarburo que entra por la tubería se multiplica muchas veces con respecto al arreglo puramente vertical. Esta innovación se encuentra en la base de la llamada «revolución del fracking». Las primeras aplicaciones comerciales de esta tecnología, como se usa hoy en día, las realizó Mitchell Energy (hoy parte de Devon Energy) en la formación con yacimiento de gas conocida como Barnett, en el norte del estado de Texas.
El último componente de la tecnología de fracturación hidráulica es de carácter sistémico y consiste en el desarrollo de «plataformas».6 Debido a que cada campo en un yacimiento de esquistos presenta una gran heterogeneidad interna en las cualidades del subsuelo, una vez que se ha localizado un punto dulce, es óptimo perforar varios pozos muy cerca unos de otros, cada uno con la tubería horizontal subterránea apuntando en una dirección distinta a la de los otros. Hay en la actualidad plataformas que contienen hasta 16 pozos.
Recurso, reserva y producción
En el lenguaje de la economía de los recursos de extracción existe una terminología básica para referirse a las cantidades de una materia prima que se encuentra en concentraciones naturales en el subsuelo. A veces, el mal uso de esa terminología genera considerables confusiones, tanto en informes de prensa como en la toma de decisiones políticas o económicas. En las breves explicaciones que siguen, esa terminología se refiere principalmente al caso de los hidrocarburos.
Recursos se refiere a una estimación hecha por medios que en general son poco precisos 7 acerca de la cantidad de hidrocarburo que puede haber en una formación geológica propicia, en la cual se ha determinado de manera preliminar la existencia de cantidades significativas del mismo. Por lo general, esas estimaciones tienen inicialmente mucha incertidumbre. A menudo, los comentaristas legos tienden a asombrarse de los números dados a conocer acerca de las reservas potenciales de los campos recién descubiertos. Una manera simple de dimensionar de manera racional lo que esos datos significan es teniendo presente que, en la actualidad, el mundo consume petróleo crudo a una tasa anual aproximada de 30,000 millones de barriles.
La tabla da las estimaciones hechas por la eia8 del recurso potencial, en orden de importancia, de aquellos países que tienen recursos significativos de petróleos de esquisto. La estimación de la eia para todo el mundo alcanza (en 2014) 345,000 millones de barriles.
El término reservas es de un carácter más concreto y cercano a los propósitos de explotación del hidrocarburo. Existen las reservas técnicamente recuperables, las cuales son la cantidad de hidrocarburo extraíble con las tecnologías disponibles en el momento de su evaluación. Estas son en general una fracción del recurso que se cree que existe. De hecho, el supuesto siempre es que hay una parte, a veces grande, del recurso estimado que no será accesible por ningún medio presente o futuro. Utilizando el caso mejor conocido, en la tabla se lee que el tamaño del recurso de los Estados Unidos es de 58,000 millones de barriles; sin embargo, la eia estima que las reservas técnicamente explotables en la actualidad no superan los 24,000 millones de barriles.
Por último, también existen las reservas económicamente recuperables. Estas son, a su vez, una fracción de las técnicamente recuperables, y su tamaño depende principalmente del precio actual del hidrocarburo en el mercado. Como se puede apreciar, ambos conceptos de reserva producen estimaciones elásticas, ya que las circunstancias económicas y las innovaciones tecnológicas afectan sus dimensiones. Utilizando de nuevo el caso de los Estados Unidos, las estimaciones de reservas económicamente accesibles eran de unos 5,000 millones de barriles (antes de la caída estrepitosa de precios de los últimos diez meses). Aun con todo el cuidado que tienen las agencias oficiales entendidas en este tema, todas las cifras anunciadas no son sino adivinanzas basadas en numerosos modelos de estimación. Sin embargo, en última instancia, la única manera de saber a qué atenerse es cuando alguien incurre en el esfuerzo y el costo de ir hasta el lugar de la formación geológica candidata y perfora.
Las elaboraciones técnicas del concepto de reserva incluyen el uso del concepto de probabilidad; por ejemplo, las reservas recuperables con 90% de probabilidad,9 las recuperables con 50% de probabilidad, etc. A veces, las naciones cuya supervivencia depende de lo que otras naciones piensen de su capacidad para producir, dígase todos los miembros de la opep, comunican como reservas el nivel denominado P50, es decir, aquellas reservas que son recuperables con 50% de probabilidad. Por supuesto, a medida que la probabilidad de referencia es más baja, las reservas reportables son mayores. A medida que los métodos de extracción bajan de costo o se ven afectados por innovaciones significativas, los valores de las reservas económicas se incrementan. Por otro lado, tras un largo período de explotación, llega el día en el cual, sin importar el grado de esfuerzo o innovación, ese guarismo debe descender hasta llegar a ser de poca relevancia económica.
La importancia de entender el uso de estos términos es grande, sobre todo cuando se habla de los hidrocarburos extraídos por métodos no convencionales. Como ejemplo de comparación, en el caso de los crudos convencionales ha habido ejemplos de campos muy grandes, como el Gawar de Arabia Saudita, en donde las reservas técnicamente recuperables se cree que son del 50 al 60% del tamaño estimado del recurso y, a su vez, las reservas económicamente recuperables pueden alcanzar el 75% de las técnicamente recuperables. Estas son cifras inusuales incluso para campos convencionales. En todo caso, las de los campos convencionales presentan valores distintos a los que normalmente se esperan de campos no convencionales. En el caso de formaciones de esquistos, no es usual esperar que las reservas técnicamente recuperables superen el 10% del recurso estimado. Solo este dato debería servir de «chequeo de realidad» a la hora de leer o escuchar noticias sensacionalistas acerca del tamaño de los recursos mineros no convencionales en general. Añádase a ese hecho que, en el caso de los yacimientos de esquisto, las reservas económicamente recuperables son muy sensibles al comportamiento del precio. Esas reservas no son iguales a cero solo si el precio internacional es lo suficientemente alto. Precisamente esta limitación fue la que hizo que los petróleos de esquisto permanecieran sin explotar durante décadas. Del campo de Bakken, por ejemplo, se conocían todos los parámetros desde 1953: tamaño del recurso y características geológicas; sin embargo, el incentivo económico para una explotación sistemática no se dio sino hasta el año 2005, cuando el precio del petróleo se elevó hasta valores casi prohibitivos en ese entonces, alrededor de 65 dólares.
El síndrome de la Reina Roja
En los párrafos precedentes se ha explicado cómo el petróleo y el gas de esquisto difieren en cuanto a costos y abundancia relativa con respecto a los convencionales. La mayor diferencia, sin embargo, reside en los procedimientos necesarios para realizar la extracción de yacimientos de esquisto. En la figura se muestra el resumen estadístico de los resultados de extracción de todos los pozos que entraron en producción en los 66 meses anteriores a junio de 2014 en el yacimiento de Bakken. La gráfica muestra el perfil de la producción de barriles diarios del pozo típico comparando el número de meses tras el inicio de operaciones.
Nótese que la escala de tiempo del eje horizontal está medida en meses. En los campos del yacimiento Bakken, durante el período de recolección de datos, las tasas de declinación fueron del 69% en el primer año, 39% en el segundo, 26% en el tercero, 27% en el cuarto y 33% en el quinto año. En tan solo dos años, la producción inicial del pozo típico se desploma en un 81%, aproximadamente. Como ya se ha mencionado en otra parte, el declive mundial del petróleo convencional «antiguo» sería de cerca del 9.5% en el mismo período. Además, en el período de muestra, el pozo típico comienza en niveles de producción de alrededor de 500 barriles diarios, que resulta moderada para los estándares del petróleo convencional.
En resumen, esta forma de negocio petrolero no guarda mucha relación con lo que fue en el pasado. La tasa de declive de los pozos es tan elevada que para mantener un nivel de producción constante las compañías que operan en esos campos petroleros no pueden detenerse en el proceso de apertura y puesta en producción de pozos. Como ilustración de lo que implica la explotación de petróleo de esquisto, el Bakken es, de nuevo, arquetípico. En diciembre de 2006, según datos de la eia, existía un total de 289 pozos productivos en el yacimiento. En ese tiempo, el promedio de producción diaria por pozo era de 35 barriles. Hacia esta fecha, la fiebre de producción tipo fracking empezó a sentirse en ese yacimiento. En diciembre de 2010 había registrados un total de 2,064 pozos, que producían en promedio 133 barriles diarios, y en diciembre de 2014 el total de pozos activos registrados era de 8,944, con una producción promedio de 130 barriles diarios.10 De esta información, un lector no curtido en el tema podría concluir que, por ejemplo, entre diciembre de 2006 y diciembre de 2010 se abrieron un número de pozos igual a la diferencia entre los datos de las dos fechas, es decir, un neto de 1775 pozos en cuatro años, o del mismo modo deducir que un total de 6,880 pozos nuevos se añadieron entre diciembre de 2010 y diciembre de 2014. Esa deducción resulta ingenua. Debido a la tasa tan acelerada de declive, los números son muy distintos. Por ejemplo, entre enero de 2010 y julio de 2011 se perforaron nuevos pozos a razón de 63 mensuales en promedio, con un total de 1,197 en tan solo 19 meses. Por otra parte, como se puede notar, la productividad por pozo aumentó entre 2006 y 2010. Sin embargo, se estancó a partir de 2010.
Como consecuencia, el número mensual de pozos que tienen que abrirse, incluso para mantener la misma producción, debe incrementarse. En los 18 meses siguientes, entre julio de 2011 y diciembre de 2012, el número promedio de pozos abiertos mensualmente fue de 144, con un total de 2,592 en ese período.11
Estos números invitan a reflexionar sobre la sostenibilidad de ese esfuerzo. Rune Likvern, un analista noruego, acuñó la expresión síndrome de la Reina Roja para referirse a la situación en la cual las compañías que explotan petróleos de esquisto se ven en una carrera constante en contra del declive de los pozos. En Más allá del espejo, la obra de Lewis Carroll, la Reina Roja le dice a Alicia: «Aquí tienes que correr a toda velocidad para poder permanecer en el mismo lugar, y si quieres desplazarte a otro… ¡Entonces debes correr el doble de prisa!».
Las producciones de los dos yacimientos de esquisto importantes, Eagle Ford y Bakken, en abril de 2015 sumaban un total aproximado de 2.9 millones de barriles. Según las estimaciones de la eia, estos dos centros de producción combinados alcanzarían un pico máximo de tal vez 3.5 millones de barriles diarios hacia 2020. Entre ambos producen alrededor del 70% de todo el petróleo de esquisto que se obtiene en la actualidad. En el momento de redactar este escrito, la extracción del petróleo de esquisto en otras naciones no ha prosperado hasta el punto de que represente una contribución de importancia para el suministro mundial.
Finanzas difíciles
No fue coincidencia que el interés por los esquistos se activara en los años setenta. Los traumas causados por el embargo petrolero de la opep durante esa década abrieron los ojos de muchos gobiernos, en particular el de los Estados Unidos, acerca de la posición estratégica de este recurso y de los recursos energéticos en general. El presidente Gerald Ford, en su discurso del estado de la Unión de 1975, mencionó explícitamente el hecho de dar estímulos tributarios y de asistencia de investigación para la explotación de petróleo de esquisto. Las aventuras iniciales de Mitchell Energy no surgieron de un simple interés por aprender, sino que fueron en gran parte el resultado de dos estímulos: la liberalización del precio del gas natural en los años ochenta, y las ventajas tributarias de las inversiones hechas en esa área. El desarrollo de la tecnología en el caso del gas natural sirvió para acelerar la producción de petróleo, a partir del momento en que los niveles de precios permitieron obtener beneficios económicos a los actores privados.
Las expectativas financieras que tenían muchos de los participantes iniciales en la «fiebre del esquisto» no se realizaron. Las compañías grandes, con la excepción de ConocoPhillips, abandonaron en gran parte la idea de la explotación y vendieron muchos activos a otros actores minoritarios del negocio del petróleo. Esta situación se da en el país que tiene las mayores facilidades, tanto tecnológicas como financieras, para llevar a cabo dicha tarea. Recientemente, la eia publicó en su página web un análisis de los resultados financieros agregados de una lista de cerca de 127 compañías de explotación de esquistos. En él se evidencia que el flujo de caja libre total, agregado desde el inicio de la «fiebre», ha permanecido en rojo en casi todos los años. No solo nunca han visto ganancia neta, sino que cuando se publicó el informe estaban gastando más de 4 dólares por cada dólar de ingreso que tenían. Hay que señalar que esa publicación fue preparada antes razón por la cual muchas siguen operando es porque han sido capaces de captar mucho dinero, tanto de bancos como del público en general, a través de préstamos y con la emisión de bonos y acciones. ¿Burbuja?
El talón de Aquiles financiero que tienen todas las compañías que trabajan en la explotación dentro de los Estados Unidos se vio claramente con la reciente caída de precio, debido en parte a una decisión de Arabia Saudita de no «perder participación de mercado». Esa lógica parece tener, según sospechan muchos analistas del tema, una segunda intención pobremente disfrazada: destruir financieramente a los productores estadounidenses de petróleos de esquisto.
Conclusión
La caída de precios observada durante los últimos diez meses, lejos de producir una complacencia soporífera en los estados nacionales que dependen totalmente del suministro de petróleo, debiera advertirles –una vez más– acerca de la infame volatilidad del precio de ese insumo. Un colapso financiero de algunos pocos productores marginales puede revertir el fenómeno y causar un renovado desplome de recesión. La situación presente del único sector que muestra crecimiento en la producción, los no convencionales, no acaba de demostrar que sea un fenómeno duradero. El mismo Servicio Geológico de los Estados Unidos estima que el pico de la producción de esquisto ocurrirá en algún momento antes de 2020. En otras palabras, dentro de no más de una década está planteada la resolución de la verdadera incertidumbre: qué pasará con esta forma de producción de petróleo, en vista de los problemas estructurales asociados con la geología y los costos de producción. Es una pregunta de mucho interés debido a la persistencia del problema que abrió la puerta a la producción no convencional: el estancamiento en el que ha entrado la producción convencional. Para dimensionar ese problema es útil ver algunos resultados recientes de la exploración convencional. En el período 1994-2004, el esfuerzo de exploración mundial supuso aproximadamente 2.4 billones de dólares. Como resultado, la producción neta se incrementó en aproximadamente 12 millones de barriles diarios. Durante el período 2005-2010 el gasto fue muy similar, con el resultado de que la producción neta convencional se «incrementó» en -0.2 millones de barriles diarios. Tras esos despilfarros, las grandes compañías buscan en la actualidad otras formas de generar utilidades.
Dado que el mundo está atado al consumo de energía producida principalmente a partir de combustibles fósiles, la historia del dinero ofrece una metáfora que arroja luces sobre la situación presente. El oro fue durante mucho tiempo la base del sistema monetario internacional. Era un artículo de fe –ni qué decir señal de verdadera seriedad en el manejo del erario público– que el oro debía constituir el fundamento sobre el cual reposara el manejo de la riqueza de las naciones. A principios del siglo xx, los políticos, banqueros centrales y académicos coincidían en ese punto de vista de manera casi unánime. Es un hecho curioso en la historia del dinero que, tomando en cuenta que eran personas de gran reputación e inteligencia, a casi ninguno de ellos se le ocurrió la posibilidad de que la tasa de extracción física del oro se erigiría como una barrera insalvable en contra de esas proclividades puritanas. El choque entre la ideología del patrón oro y la realidad fue un factor de peso considerable en el advenimiento de la Gran Depresión. La confianza de la que hacen gala muchos analistas y economistas de turno, acerca de que el suministro se encuentra garantizado si el precio es correcto, es en parte una expresión necesaria del discurso público que deben practicar en su día a día. Sería bueno que al menos en sus elucubraciones privadas no ignorasen los límites de esa confianza. Para citar a Mark Twain, «Lo que nos mete en problemas no es lo que no sabemos; es lo que sabemos con seguridad, pero que no es así».
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